Jmann's bass prediction for 2006 (great article)

[LBIfisher]

Here is a section of Jmann's weekly report, I thought it hit the nail right on the head concerning the coastwide fishery:

---"On the dark side, disturbingly-documented photo-stories of cow bass -- in unheard of numbers ? being taken off North Carolina continues to irk a ton of fishing folks from our area. And the catching of bass from 40 to 55 pounds goes on unabated down there.
I do want to say that there are no laws being broken. I caught hell from a charternboat angler who works Oregon Inlet area. ?We take as many bass as the law allows. Why shouldn?t we?? he said to me in no undue terms, adding, ?If I don?t take these guys out someone else will.? He also noted there is ?some? catch-and-release but didn?t protest when I let out a derisive huff in response.
I?ll side-step the catch-and-release (or lack of same) issue this go?round. That?s because I?m still stuck on just what the hell is going on, biomass-wise.
In recent years, I kinda agreed with fishery management that big bass were disappearing at an alarming rate. Since the mid-1990s, the cow-bass catches from Maine to Delaware clearly indicated a precipitous decline in bass over, say 30 pounds. Then, bam!, jumbo stripers show up to our south in unheralded numbers, a veritable cloud of full-blown trophy fish.
As I?ve noted in here before ? and have had doubly confirmed by other coastal areas of our state -- there were more big bass being caught in a single North Carolina fishing day than were caught during all 2005 bass fishing contests in NJ. Worth a repeat: A single three-hour charter out of Oregon Inlet caught more large bass than were taken during our entire 6-week LBI surf fishing tourney.
WHAT?S UP FOR 2006: I?ll now make a prediction about local bassing for 2006. You?re not going to like how it ends.
On the up side, look for the arrival of large spring bass ? again. Over the past few years, our biggest bass of the year have come during the spring run. These springtime biggies may (or may not) be NC fish fanning northward.
(By the by, we?ll again be running the 2006 ?Simply Bassing?? event from Mother?s Day weekend to Father?s Day. You oughta join since you?ll likely get your biggest bass of the year during that striper stint.)
Back to my predictions.
Summer will be typically hit-or-miss on local summer-izing bass, with the Barnegat Inlet and the Causeway areas shining.
Then, sadly, there is no reason to think fall 2006 will be any different this year than last. There?s something amiss out there and the fact that NC bassing is once again exploding may be very telling. It?s possibly coincidental but our fall bass fishing has been dismal when NC cow-bassing explodes like now. I fully realize that I?m probably not including enough variables in my predictions ? and, I swear, I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong.
And I refuse to ignore the croakers. I just know they?re somehow malignantly affecting our fall, bassing.
On one final pissed off note: More than ever there is just no logic in keeping us from smaller bass ? even with our 2@28 law. Smaller bass are simply running rampant in the system. I would be more than willing to go the extra permit mile to take our allotted trophy tag fish poundage in bass between 20 and 24 inches."

[Re-Bait]

I completely disagree with this observation. If there are too many big fish being taken, than why was are there so many good sized spring running fish? The simply bassing 2004 was wide open with 30/40 pounders, clearly the best spr.run since the 1960's, maybe best spring ever!

If these bass are moving North in the spring, and we don't see them in the fall, it doesn't mean they died does it? Probably means they were offshore when they went south. The fisheries are changing, ie. much more in spring less in fall, no bluefish,etc.

I don't blame our results on what is happening in NC.

[Fishaholic29]

His hypothesis about the fall fishery may be twisted, but the reality is that the fishery both NC and VA are experiencing will undoubtedly change the biomass numbers, especially the large cow bass we all live for! What I can't believe is that these charter captains aren't publicly attempting to educate their clients in an attempt to promote conservation by catch and release. What could a 4 man charter possibly do with a limit of 8 fish over 30 pounds plus the mate and captains limit? Granted, I am sure there are a select few who do ask their charters to only keep what they can use, but all the reports and articles I have read have the rebuttles being in regards to keeping legal limits etc... I have even seen reports on web sites based on the west coast about the fishery and with pics of the carnage. I also agree with Jay's view of the 2 @ 28". I just hope the growing popularity of catch and release with our NJ anglers and captains helps resist the temptation of hanging two big fish back at the dock instead of one! It's scary to think what damage we could do during the spring bunker run by keeping two over 28"!

[Dar-Lynn]

A couple of things ... the ONLY reason you don't see all those 40's and 50's hanging on fences in NJ is because they aren't being caught. If they were here we would see as many -- if not MORE than what we're seeing down in NC and Virginia.

Second --- what the best breading age of stripers? It is NOT the 40 to 50 lb fish.

Third --- what's the difference between NC/Virginia keeping those fish ... and the Captains(as he says) here in NJ keeping 2 female 30" fish(per person)?

Just because the smaller fish aren't hanging on fences doesn't mean they(numbers of bass) aren't be equally reduced in NJ.

[ 02-22-2006, 02:00 PM: Message edited by: Dar-Lynn ]

[Fishaholic29]

Ummm have you been in NJ the last 3 years fishing for striped bass? There are countless 40's caught daily and at least a 50 or two per week in late spring when the bunker are here. Regardless whether the 40 and 50 pound fish is the best breeding age, they still breed. They are also the target of many fisherman like myself. They take many years to grow to that size and have countless obstacles to get there. Once you remove them from the system, it will be years before we will have a shot at that trophy fishery again. This isn't about the number of fish being taken in either state, it's about a trophy fishery that is being abused which will have adverse affects on our future!

[LBIfisher]

You guys all made some great points. I think it is very possible and almost probable that the bass migrate offshore in the fall (due to the shrewsbury rocks massacres). All of these cows seems to bite the dust when they reach Virginia though, which I think is sickening. 2nd issue: While a 30 inch fish can't hold as many eggs as a 50lber, they do still carry eggs and there are tons more of em in the system (around here anyways). Much research has been done and the conclusion is that 28 inches is the length of maturity for striped bass (hence the original 2 at 28" limit). I personally think that this fact in itself can be a double edged sword. Yes, when you keep smaller fish (24-28) you are preventing people from keeping the cows, but at the same time you are also killing a fish that has not reached maturity yet. At least a 28-32 inch fish has spawned once to a couple of times, right? I don't know which is worse, maybe we should limit it to one over 28, although I know the charter and headboats (with bonus tags) would raise hell if that ever happened, so it is not logical due to the greed of the fishery. Oh, and another thing, as bad as the charterboat fishery is in VA / NC, it is even worse with the gillnetters and seiners, who cull through hundreds to even thousands of 20 lb fish to get their quotas of 30-40 lb fish. In my mind this is the real culprit. MAKE STRIPED BASS A HOOK AND LINE FISH!!!!!

[LBIfisher]

Just wanted to post Jay's logic again,

"As I?ve noted in here before ? and have had doubly confirmed by other coastal areas of our state -- there were more big bass being caught in a single North Carolina fishing day than were caught during all 2005 bass fishing contests in NJ. Worth a repeat: A single three-hour charter out of Oregon Inlet caught more large bass than were taken during our entire 6-week LBI surf fishing tourney."

----No one can dispute the fact that our fall fishery for the last 3 years has been lacking when it comes to bigger fish, it is downright pitifull. I caught a couple of nice fish this fall ( a 30, 35, and 38lb), but they were all bay fish. What ever happened to the nice 20-40 lb silver sided migrating fish that we used to get in the surf? I think that they migrate offshore to NC, then die. Anyone have any ideas on why these fish are always offshore???? I would love hear it, since our boat fishery (besides the bay and shrewsbury rocks) is no where near the quality that they have in NC and VA. I know because I have a boat, fish the rips, LBI, Island Beach, and know many charter captains and I can tell you that the number of 20-40 lb fish in the fall (migrating fish) is not a hundreth of the amount in NC!!! Down there a bad day is 3 or 4 fish over 30lbs in a half day!!!! These are from a week and a half and all from just one charterboat (out of how many? A couple hundred???!!!! Enjoy....(jk!!!)

http://reelbuzz.com/fishreports/fishnfool/images/DSCN3064.JPG
http://reelbuzz.com/fishreports/fishnfool/images/DSCN3050.JPG
http://reelbuzz.com/fishreports/fishnfool/images/DSCN3022.JPG
http://reelbuzz.com/fishreports/fishnfool/images/DSCN2983.JPG

"A Bad Day in NC"
http://reelbuzz.com/fishreports/fishnfool/images/DSCN2927.JPG

http://reelbuzz.com/fishreports/fishnfool/images/DSCN2911.JPG
http://reelbuzz.com/fishreports/fishnfool/images/ACF3F9.JPG
http://reelbuzz.com/fishreports/fishnfool/images/DSCN2664.JPG

[joe kane]

1 at 50 inches this spring is all i want.

[jumpingjoe]

It's sad to see all these cows lined up on the dock everyday.For me it's more about the catching than it is the keeping of the fish.In the past two years I've caught well over a hundred legal size keeper Bass and I've only kept two.I've read reports of dead Bass floating on the surface after they've been "culled" by Commerical fishermen.It all really makes me sick.
I think alot of these guys who are fishing down in N.C. just don't know any better.I agree with Fishaholic,the captains need to try and educate their clients about the importance of catch and release,because in the long run it's going to effect their business as well.I'd be happy if they changed the regs. to one keeper per man a day.Hopefully Jmann's report is wrong and there are more large Bass out there then we all think ,but I don't think so.

[Re-Bait]

I don't think there is ONE 40 pounder in all of those fish, but so what?

If there is a big gang of them in a feeding frenzy, what would you condone??? Would you have them NOT take home their limit?

[Ardmore Bill]

I hope everyone notices the bellies on these fish - those are all egg filled sacks in them.

I would like to make one humble suggestion and hear what everyone has to say, is this area in NC a place that might qualify for a MPA? Isn't places like this what MPA's are supposed to protect and be all about?

I fully realize that most fisher folks don't like the idea of MPAs and it is a thread that once pulled may spread all over, but I think the question should be asked anyway.

What do you all think?

[Keeper Seeker]

Bill, That took brass balls my friend. I agree with you 100%. The cows are never more concentrated in any other place at any other time of the year... never. They are there doing one thing... Fattening up for thier migration and building eggsacks to spawn. It is my opinion also that they should be protected during this staging period during the winter. I don't know that I would like to see it set up as an MPA, but something has to be done.

One thing is for certain. "All" of the fish in the above pics, and all of the other pics from down there over the winter will NOT spawn. :(

[ 02-22-2006, 11:13 PM: Message edited by: Keeper Seeker ]

[freedom]

it's sad that the cappy & mates take limmits sure it's like passing the buck, sorry if your for hire cappy your fish an't for sale!

captians & paid mates should not be allowed fish. thats almost as bad as saying M##

and yes i would like to see a summer slot striper, one pre person. i belive it could very well be a shot in the arm for the tackle & bait shops.

[Fishaholic29]

Re-Bait, I condone keeping your legal limit, that is your right. However, if you were on my boat or on the beach with me, I would ask that you only take what you realisticly can use. Not what you can offer to half your neighbors and the dog. The issue I have isn't with the legal taking of these fish, it's the ignorance with which it's done. I recently saw a post criticising the Canyon Runner crew of taking advantage of the swordfishery in Miami which only recently rebounded. The post asked what they were doing to assure they didn't abuse the resource. Their reply was simple, they educated the client and asked that they share their views and keep only one fish despite the size of any other fish caught. In the end it was the clients decision to take their legal limit, but in turn, they chose to keep the second fish knowing they would no longer be welcome on that boat. I am not saying the smaller operations in NC or VA can afford that stand, but it is an example of how an operation can educate the clients to the potential damage they can cause by being a glutton. As Jumpinjoe mentioned, it will ultimately hurt them in the end as well. I think an MPA is extreme, but some simple form of public eductation is necessary. Whether you like to anchor up near the skinny stuff and catch them chunking or I like to swim out and throw snakes at em' doesn't matter, the bottom line is, we are fishing for the same BIG fish and they are being taken at alarming rates. So to answer your question, I would ask MY charters to keep one trophy fish only, as I know it affects everyone!

[LBIfisher]

This is a sickening issue for sure and sadly I don't think any laws will change down there anytime soon. The 2 at 28 is one matter, but the commercial culling is the real culprit down there. VA and NC are the worst as far as fisheries management goes in the country. Just look at what has happened with the bunker situation down there! 15 states of the ASMFC have wanted to cap the bunker harvest in the Chesepeake region (a huge spawning ground) and that damn Virginia government and governor were obviously lobbied into defending the reduction fleet and Omega Protein against the will of 1/2 of the east coast and the Federal Government!!! I hope those idiots are ruled out of compliance. The mindset down there is a simple one, which is a mindset based on only one thing: MONEY and GREED. Compare states like NC and VA to states like Florida, Lousiana, and Texas. These southern states have gone through hell with the commercials, greed, and money. What was the answer to bring back the redfish?---CONSERVATION, or NEW LAWS and RESTRICTIONS. What brough back the striped bass in the 80's?---THE MORATORIUM. Some people just don't get it, THERE IS NOT AN UNLIMITED RESOURCE OUT THERE. If these charter boats keep on filling their limits with breeders and the netters keep culling these wintering cows, then it will only be a matter of time until we reach a moratorium again. The best that we can do as fisherman is to GET INVOLVED with the politics, join the RFA, attend meetings and try to make a difference. It is simply a political game. I wish it wasn't this way, but it is the reality of the issue. If we don't do this then we will have wait until the whole fishery collapses again and then try to start from scratch.

[Re-Bait]

Again What would you have them do? Catch and release is the obvious answer, but if they are allowed to take 2 each, why shouldn't they? I have always believed striper fisherman are self limiting; that is after limiting out for a trip or two or three, they tend to start releasing fish and not taking their limit.

http://www.imagestation.com/picture/sraid116/p929182c3441da47cb84892bfe84df032/f8a618aa.jpg


MPA's :eek: :mad: :rolleyes: Yeah why don't we MPA the delaware Bay too while we are at it!

[LBI SurfRat]

All good points. I think the commercial guys culling is a huge problem. I do think that keeping 2 LARGE fish like the ones in the pic's isnt a good thing down the road BUT its the law and I cant be mad at those guys b/c if i had a 40lb'er and then got a 50 I would most likely keep it. I cant lie. For the avergage guy fishing a few times a year those fish are "life time" fish for them. I do agree (and hope) that the capt's down there are preaching about catch & release.
I like this thread b/c it does show different view points but it tells me one thing.......WE ALL care about our fishery. Now if i can get you guys to "luv" my favorite fish...BLUEFISH! it would be perfect. I want slammers back! I think the bluefish gets NO RESPECT!
This entire topic(subject) is just another example of POLITIC's and how we HAVE to get involved and keep scratching/biting/kicking/screaming!
My hats off to all you fella's...even shawn.....LOL!
Im just gonna follow him around all season to get my cow!
Nick

[jumpingjoe]

Re-Bait, I understand that most of these guys are coming from throughout the east coast and paying a lot of money for a charter so they want to "get their money's worth" and keep their legal limit.I'm just wondering how many of these guys are going to be cleaning out their freezers six months from now throwing out lbs. of fillets they never used.I see it all the time.So many of the fishermen I talk to (most that have their own boats) tell me that they "clean out" their freezers two or three times a year and discard pounds of unused fish.I think Charter Capt's need to educate their clients about catch and release and emphasize to their customers that they only take what they're going to use and not anything more. How many times have you seen or heard about guys going out on party boats and loading up on Blues,10 and now this year 15 fish per man and never even eatting half of what they take home.It happens all the time. I'd just like to see more pics like the one you posted,each man holding one fish.

[Dar-Lynn]

Originally posted by Fishaholic29:
Ummm have you been in NJ the last 3 years fishing for striped bass? There are countless 40's caught daily and at least a 50 or two per week in late spring when the bunker are here. Regardless whether the 40 and 50 pound fish is the best breeding age, they still breed. They are also the target of many fisherman like myself. They take many years to grow to that size and have countless obstacles to get there. Once you remove them from the system, it will be years before we will have a shot at that trophy fishery again. This isn't about the number of fish being taken in either state, it's about a trophy fishery that is being abused which will have adverse affects on our future! I've been fishing NJ the last 20 years. My point is, while, yes, there are big bass being caught(and look at the numbers, they are declining) each year in NJ. However many are caught, they are NOT equalling the number of big fish being caught in NC. IF, NJ, did have the same gathering of bass, in such large quantities, you would see MORE pictures of them here. NJ simply has more boaters than NC. I know we're picking on NC, but NJ would be worse, given the same parameters. This isn't even including the yahoos from NY and the charter boats.

Everybody is given their 'THEORY' on 40/50# fish and the hatchery. These fish big fish are not great breaders. Go to the 'other' site and talk to Frank D. Ask him if he was to keep 1 fish(either a 50 or 10 lb), which one would he keep and why.

It's just funny to me that most complain about regulations in NJ(gee I can only keep 2 fish and they HAVE to be bigger than 28 - it's not worth the money for bait and gas), yet complain about the fishery in NC. If it wasn't for the regulations in NJ --- there would be an all out asault on these bass and people would bring home 20 fish per trip.

[Fishaholic29]

Dar-Lynn, last time I checked, fishing was a sport for fun. Fishing doesn't have to mean kill everything! I don't know why people equate the number of keepers to the amount of money they have to spend on gas and bait? If you were in a situation where fish was your sole source of food to feed your family, I could relate. None of us are in that position as we type elequently from behind our computers. Not sure why I would ask Frank D what he would take, he commercial fished for years to feed his family?! As for the one fish, take whichever one you want. I'll likely take the 10 pounder as it's more then enough meat for me, it tastes better, and that's my choice. This isn't about what size fish is exceptable to take, it's an attempt to educate people about the potential damages that could occur by abusing the trophy fishery and taking more then one needs. Perhaps the concentration of large bass in NJ is not what it might be in NC and VA, but with twice the number of people targeting them in NJ, the take must be close. Combine that with the new regs, and I think we are in for disaster unless we collectively speak out and so something.

JumpinJoe, the pic is of one fish cause it's here in NJ. Hopefully this year it won't be the same pic with each person holding two?

Re-Bait, as I said, they/we are entitled to take a legal limit. However, I feel it's our job as fishermen to stand up and share our concerns for the benefit of all. I personally feel that we will hurt our own fishery by taking our legal limit of big fish each trip out. It's just not necessary especially when many of us go so often. So for example, that would mean that the charter captain educate his clients prior to the trip on his views and implements them. You could possibly speak up in your club and ask that only one fish be weighed in for the tournaments even though it's legal to take 2. My club has already implemented that for the 2006 season! In the end, you'll do what you feel is right and hopefully within the legal limits. I am just suggesting we collectively consider imposing our own regs when possible for the benefit of the trophy fish we seek each trip out.

Nick, you know you are welcome with me anytime as long as you keep nothing and remain blind folded at all times ;)

[bubblehead1]

Here's 1 vote for teh big fish staying offshore last fall. Every trip to 2fb and 4fb all fall produced 35 to 40 inch fish. EVERY trip. EVERY trip that anybody I know took. 100 percent of the time. So they wer here, just not inside the 3 mile limit. My semi sober opinion for that is the chocolate milk we had for water most of the fall. As bad as I have ever seen. Naturally, all those incidental bluefish bycatch critters were released.