We all know that there have been a multitude of posts regarding the spill this past fall.
I have done a lot of listening and a lot of thinking.
The sad reality is ,there is very little we can do, except clean up what we can and hope for the best as far as preventing another disaster. I'm not shore there is much we can do that isn't already being done.
I'd like to talk about my feelings on how the spring run is going to play out.
We know that there is a lot of oil sitting on the bottom of the river from ground zero and south , primarily speaking. What has been suspended in the water colum has either sunk or is in the process of being thinned out with every tidal exchange. This much we know.
I have read a lot of doom and gloom from manny sources and i think it is both rite and wrong ,depending on what geographic area your talking about.
The american shad , striped bass and river herring are all the fish that enter the river to spawn, they are highly migratory , covering hundreds mabey even a thousand miles. They have one thing on there mind and that is to make little ones. The shad come up first with the bass and herring on there tails. They all enter the river at a time when the water is still quite cold. The temps at this time of year should keep what oil is on the bottom , on the bottom ! This will leave avenues open to the fish for migration.
The shad do not spawn in the lower river where the spill has had the worst effects, this said they more then likly will follow there noses through the oil tainted waters to find cleaner water upstream so long as 02 levels are adequate and from what i'm hearing they are.
The stripers do spawn in the areas of ground zero and south but also go far upsream well above the tidal line at trenton.
What i think may happen is that all the southern flats that normaly hold bass in the spring especialy those from the DOD north to just above ground zero are going to suffer.
I'm not saying that the fish which normaly spawn and hold in that area are not going to show up and spawn, rather i feel they will show up but like the shad will use there noses to find the next closest cleaner and suitable habitat . That habitat would be the upper tidal reaches of the river and beyond.
The lower southern flats are going to still be covered in oil in march , the upper flats have not been affected by the oil. To a fish that migrates over hundreds of miles conservativly speaking will not be detered by having to swim another 20 or 30 miles upstream to reach the suitabile habitat it seeks. IMHO .
The herring do spawn down south but the vast majority come way up the river to propigate the species. So i say the same applies to them also.
Just keep in mind that the saving grace here is the fact that all 3 species enter the river when the water is still COLD!
Meaning the oil on the bottom should still be on the bottom when the migration begins.
Yes they will smell it , of that i'm shore but as long as it stays there it will leave lanes open for them to swimm through .
I realy don't expect to see a lot of oil comming off the bottom until late may or even june when the water temps warm up into the sixty's and seventy's. One small exception would be any oil on the bottom in very shalow water that warms up faster.
Buy that time all is done and they are heading back south.
In synopsis this is how i feel it will play out.
The lower river has a bad yearand all the fish that normaly hold there come further north into my neck of the woods along with all the fish that normaly come up here and us northern guy's are gonna have ....well a very nice year [img]tongue.gif[/img]
Only time will tell if my prediction holds any salt.
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